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What happens after the ‘blue wave’? Your questions on the US midterm election results answered

The Guardianby Guardian staffOpen original ↗

Democrats have taken control of Congress in a sweeping blue wave. Our reporters answered your questions about the results of the US midterm elections

Bgdxc1 asks in the comments: How will this election impact the implementation of NPVIC? How plausible is it that the bills would impact 2028?

Sam Levine, voting rights reporter: The mid-term results give the the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) a serious chance of going into effect. For anyone unfamiliar, the (NPVIC) is an agreement among states in which they agree to award their electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote. It would only go into effect if states with at least 270 electoral college votes – enough to win the presidency) agree. Currently, states with 222 electoral votes have agreed to the pact. Democrats won trifectas on Tuesday in states that have 61 electoral votes. Enough states would have to agree to the compact by 20 July 2028 in order for it to go into effect for the next presidential election. Even though Democrats now have enough legislatures to enact the pact, it doesn’t mean it will necessarily go into effect. For one, the states where Democrats have new majorities are the presidential battlegrounds Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Those states may not be interested in giving up the attention and focus they get in presidential election years and the federal resources that come with it. There are likely to be a slew of legal challenges to the agreement should enough states join and I would expect the US supreme court to have final say on whether such an agreement is constitutional.

Lex McMenamin, movement building reporter: For context, I’ve been closely covering the youth vote since 2018, and it was my main beat up until this January. I’ve been back on it this week, and what an exciting one to return! I feel safe saying it as of right now: Based on exit polling, young people were absolutely a decisive voting bloc this cycle – as they have been in the last two midterm cycles. According to Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (Circle), which monitors youth civic engagement, 2026 youth turnout was the second-highest midterms turnout in 30 years, second only to the 2018 midterms that brought us “the Squad” during Trump’s first term. Every youth population that went for Trump in 2024, including both Latino and white men, flipped Democratic by several points. They voted blue on average by +30 in battleground states including Florida and Michigan. These numbers may shift slightly by the spring, when Circle will release full voter data – which, as my colleague Will Craft notes below, are not yet available – but are nonetheless historically notable. Young people are a part of a backlash we’re seeing across generations against Republicans, but it’s absolutely about the issues, too: It was over the economy, corruption, US war-making and civil rights. They also won a number of seats in state legislatures, continuing to build a presence in government. I’ll dig into the details, and talk to some of those youth voters, in a story coming this weekend.

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